Thailand's February 2
election will be more fraught than previous ones, analysts say, and will do
little if anything to resolve deep and increasingly bitter political divisions
in Thailand.
When the Democrat
Party last boycotted elections in 2006, it did not obstruct the registration of
candidates or voting at polling stations. This time, however, the self-styled
People's Democratic Reform Council, in effect the street politics wing of the
Democrats, has tried to obstruct the registration and said it will not allow
the election to take place.
Attempts to prevent
officials from holding elections or to block people from voting could be met by
violence from supporters of the ruling Puea Thai party.
"This election
campaign will be violent," predicted political science professor Pitch
Pongsawat from Chulalongkorn University. "The question is, can the
Election Commission function properly? It is very difficult to control violence
at the local level."
If the election goes
ahead, the Puea Thai will likely win again - like it did in 2011, when it
grabbed 265 of the 500 seats in Parliament.
In terms of votes, it
outstripped the opposition Democrat Party by around four million.
Enduring regional
differences paint a picture of dangerous geographic polarisation.
The ruling Puea Thai
party is very strong in Thailand's north-east and across the upper north, while
the Democrats dominate the south.
In the lower north
and Bangkok, the two are split roughly half and half, although the capital
usually favours the Democrats. But winning in Bangkok, the south and part of
central Thailand alone cannot deliver Parliament.
The northeast has the
biggest footprint in Parliament, accounting for 126 seats. Since 2007, the area
has recorded higher growth than any other region, which is likely to cement
loyalty to Puea Thai.
Yet, the ruling party
stands on shaky ground elsewhere. Given the Democrat Party's boycott,
candidates who win in pro-Democrat areas may still end up with fewer votes than
the "no vote" tally, leaving them as lame ducks.
According to Thai
election laws, a candidate who wins unopposed must get a minimum number of
votes to be declared a winner. If the candidate cannot hit the minimum,
by-elections will be held.
A successful election
will go down well with the international community, and a win for Puea Thai
will give the party the renewed mandate it seeks.
But millions of
mostly Bangkok-based Thais have shown that they reject the electoral system in
recent weeks.
Protesters who have
been marching in Bangkok see Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra as a front for
her older brother Thaksin Shinawatra, whom they regard as corrupt and bent on
eroding the influence of the monarchy.
Army chief Prayuth
Chanocha had warned last week: "We must not look at the situation in
Bangkok alone, but see what is happening in the provinces as well."
The political
division runs through all tambons, or sub-districts, and "the situation
could trigger a civil war", he added.
A Bangkok
Post editorial on
Monday said General Prayuth's remarks were "distressing... but it is
unfortunately true that even when it seems things can't get worse, they
can". Pitch sees the February 2 election as only a tap on the brakes
as Thailand continues to slide deeper into uncharted waters.
"Everybody is
pushing the situation towards extremes."