The Thai economy in 2013 is
projected to grow by 3 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in 2012. The growth
rate is likely to be around 4-5 percent in 2014.
The Secretary-General of
the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB),
Mr.
Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, said that the growth projection of 3 percent is
lower than 3.8-4.3 percent estimated in August 2013 because of the
lower-than-expected export growth.
Auto production is unlikely
to reach 2.5 million units as targeted, while the Government’s major investment
plans have not reached the set target. The flooding situation also had an
impact on the Thai economy. However, Mr. Arkhom said, tourism has enjoyed
steady growth. It is expected that tourist arrivals in 2013 will meet the target
of 26.2 million.
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According to NESDB, private
expenditure is expected to grow by 0.8 percent, while total investment is
projected to expand by 0.9 percent. Inflation is expected to average 2.4
percent, compared to 3 percent in 2012. The current account balance will
register a deficit of 0.9 percent of GDP, against a deficit of 0.4 percent in
2012.
The total export value is
expected to be at the same level as it was in the previous year, lower than the
previous projection of 5 percent. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister
Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan believed that Thai exports in 2013 would grow by 1
percent because of the sluggish growth of the global economy. The Ministry of
Commerce is seeking new markets for Thai exports.
As for 2014, The Thai
economic performance is expected to improve owing to the recovery of the global
economy, which will help boost exports. The situation will also bolster
household consumption and investment. Thailand’s export value will grow by 7
percent, while private consumption expenditure will increase by 2.7 percent,
and private investment by 7.1 percent. Inflation is likely to be in the range
of 2.1-3.1 percent, and the current account deficit will be about 0.6 percent
of GDP.
NESDB indicates that, with
the contribution from key government investment projects, the Thai economy in
2014 is projected to expand at a satisfactory rate. Economic stability remains
sound. International tourist arrivals in 2014 are expected to reach 28 million.
Deputy Prime Minister and
Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong admitted that the Thai economic
performance in 2013 would not meet the set target as a consequence of several
negative external factors. He believed that the Government’s planned
infrastructure development would contribute to economic growth in 2014.
According to the
International Monetary Fund, Thailand’s GDP growth is projected to slow down to
3.0–3.5 percent in 2013. Public investment projects in 2014 are expected to
become a key engine of growth, boosting growth to 5.2 percent. With growth
driven by domestic demand, the current account surplus is expected to reach a
small deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2014.
(thailand.prd.go.th)